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Trend barometer:
real estate investment market Germany 2011
Agenda
Trend barometer:
real estate investment market Germany 2011
Transaction market
Transaction highlights
Structure and method of the survey
Market outlook Germany 2011
Investment strategy Germany 2011
Showsthe developmentof the transactionvolumein Germanyin recentyears …
… with the largestresidentialand commercialreal estate transactionsin 2010.
Informationon the survey …
… beforethe resultsof the surveyon the marketoutlookfor 2011 …
… and investorstrategiesare presented.
January2011 Page 2 Trendbarometer:real estateinvestmentmarketGermany2011
German real estate transaction market
The transaction volume in recent years …
Transactionvolumes (EUR b) in Germany*
65.3
53.2
35.7 53.3
43.7 21.0 21.7
12.0
9.0 14.0 9.5 12.0
2004 2005 2006 2007
25.9
13.4 21.1
10.1
4.8 3.3
2008 2009
24.0 to 26.0 22.0
18.0
4.0
2010 2011
Residential (portfolios only) Commercial
1 2009 2 2010 3 Outlook for 2011
► Comparedwith2008, the transaction volumedecreasedby a further45%.
► Therewere somemajorcommercial portfoliotransactionsin 2008, but none in2009.
► Thetransactionvolumehas increased considerablyagain comparedwiththe prior year.
► Interestin majortransactionsalsopicked up again.
► Thetransactionvolumewill exceedthe prior-yearlevelagain, witha few majortransactionsexpected.
► Theconditionsfor transactionswill improve; moresalesare expectedas a resultof restructuringmeasures.
* Published transactions only. Source: Ernst & Young research
January2011 Page 4 Trendbarometer:real estateinvestmentmarketGermany2011
… and in each quarter of 2010
Transactionvolumes in 2010 (EUR b) in Germany*
6.0 6.2
5.4
4.4
4.8
1.2
Q1
Residential (portfolios only)
5.0 4.4
3.8
1.0 0.6 1.2
Q2 Q3 Q4
Commercial
1 Portfolio transactions 2 Types of use 3 Development
► Theshare of portfoliotransactionsin the totalvolumehas increasedagainyear on year.
► Onlya smallshareof commercialreal
estatetransactionswere portfoliodeals.
► Demandfor retail space (around45% of all commercialtransactions)wassignificantly strongerthan for officespace (35%) in 2010.
► Residentialreal estateinvestmentsremained stablecompared with2009.
► Thetransactionvolumefell steadilythroughout thefirst three quarters,howeverthe increase inQ1 compared withQ4 in the prior year was substantial.
► Thevolumerose again considerablyin the final quarterof 2010.
* Published transactions only. Source: Ernst & Young research
January2011 Page 5 Trendbarometer:real estateinvestmentmarketGermany2011
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